How America Secretly Erased Its War Debt (They’re Doing It Again!)

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    DATA SOURCES CITED
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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart and M. Belen Sbrancia —
    "The Liquidation of Government Debt"
    NBER Working Paper 16893 (March 2011); IMF Economic Review (2015)
    Also: BIS Working Papers No. 363 (companion paper)
    Used for: Annual liquidation effect 3-4% GDP for US and UK; "stealth tax"
    characterisation; "opaque to the highly politicised realm of fiscal measures";
    real rates negative ~50% of 1945-1980; definition of financial repression
    mechanisms; debt reduction via negative real rates.

    2. Julien Acalin and Laurence Ball —
    "Did the U.S. Really Grow Out of Its World War II Debt?"
    IMF Working Paper 2024/005 (January 2024)
    Used for: Counterfactual that debt/GDP would only have reached 74% in 1974
    without the rate peg and surprise inflation, not 23%; quantification of the
    three factors (primary surpluses, rate peg, surprise inflation) behind the
    actual debt reduction.

    3. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland — "The Fed's Yield-Curve-Control Policy"
    Economic Commentary 2016-15
    Used for: Morgenthau never publicly announced the programme; Fed bought $13B
    T-bills = 87% of all T-bills issued; $20B total = ~10% of all war debt issued;
    Treasury Secretary "seemed to prefer a quantitative target."

    4. Federal Reserve History — "The Treasury-Fed Accord"
    (federalreservehistory.org)
    Used for: April 1942 formal 0.375% peg commitment; 2.5% long-bond ceiling;
    Fed forced to give up balance sheet control; Eccles memoir "the fat was in
    the fire"; Truman false statement; Treasury-Fed Accord February 19, 1951.

    5. Federal Reserve History — "From WWII to the Treasury-Fed Accord"
    (federalreservehistory.org)
    Used for: The peg lasted six years after the war's end; Eccles and the Fed's
    position; inflation after price control removal summer 1946; Korean War
    escalation; CPI reaching 21% annualised by February 1951.

    6. FRASER / St. Louis Fed — "Treasury-Federal Reserve Accord of 1951 Timeline"
    Used for: April 1942 announcement structure; T-bill at 3/8%; long-bond ceiling
    at 2.5%; political chronology of the Fed-Treasury dispute.

    7. Wikipedia — National Debt of the United States (accessed April 2026)
    Used for: 1946 to 1974 debt/GDP ratio fall from 1.21 to 0.32; only 8 surpluses
    in the 28-year period; historical debt data.

    8. Cambridge Associates — "VantagePoint: Deconstructing US Debt Dynamics"
    (November 2024)
    Used for: 119% to 23% debt/GDP decline 1946-74; primary surplus averaging
    1.3% of GDP; financial repression to cap interest rates below growth;
    over 40 of 70 percentage point decline achieved by ensuring nominal growth
    stayed above interest rates.

    9. ArlingClose — "Is Financial Repression Coming Back?" (2025)
    Used for: T-bill peg at 0.375% while inflation hit 17.6% in 1946-47; IMF
    simulation showing debt/GDP would have been 51% higher without the peg;
    Trump "cut rates by 3 Points… One Trillion Dollars a year would be saved"
    (July 2025); Stephen Miran context.

    10. BlackRock GTAA — "Financial Repression Past and Future" (August 2025)
    Used for: "Active policy variable of growing relevance"; "monetary policy
    capture" under a "more pliable Fed Chair"; 20% of outstanding debt shifted
    to central bank balance sheets during COVID; Regulation Q reference.

    11. Morningstar — "What Is Financial Repression, and Why Should Bond Investors
    Fear It?" (October 2025, citing Algebris Investments)
    Used for: Europe, US, UK shifted ~20% of outstanding debt to central bank
    balance sheets during COVID pandemic.

    12. Financer.com — "What Is the U.S. Debt to GDP Ratio?" (accessed April 2026)
    Used for: US debt/GDP Q4 2025 approximately 122.3%; total national debt
    >$38.86 trillion; FY2025 interest payments ~$952 billion; first 9 weeks
    FY2026 interest = $104 billion = 15% of all federal spending;
    Moody's downgrade May 2025.

    13. Wikipedia — Financial Repression (accessed April 2026)
    Used for: "Stealth tax that rewards debtors and punishes savers — especially
    retirees"; term introduced by Shaw and McKinnon (1973); mechanisms list.

    14. Andersen Institute — "When Financial Regulation Becomes Financial Repression"
    (October 2025)
    Used for: SLR reform proposals; Moody's downgrade context; government zero
    risk weight for Treasuries under existing capital frameworks.

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